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CHRIS MARSHALL MUSIC & WORDS

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Numbers then ARGUMENTS

May 11, 2020  /  Chris Marshall

For anyone who’s been getting into Conspiracy Theories (“There is no virus, it’s all a plot to keep us all indoors and then drug us with a vaccine, it’s about keeping the population down, there IS a virus but it’s caused by 5G masts, Silicon Valley led by Bill Gates wants a piece of AI far greater than what China’s got, it’s so we forget about Brexit…etc etc), well I’m first going to put up ACCURATE (as far as organisations such as the WHO, the CDC, and the Hopkins Medical bunch in the States, all references attached at foot) NUMBERS and HISTORICAL ESTIMATES in two sections.

Then we can discuss the implications later.

Global Statistics May 11th 2020

Country        Total Cases      Deaths

World  4.3m 285,000

USA 1.37m 81,000 240 deaths/million pop.

UK 0.22m 32,000* (ONS suggests 55,000) 480 deaths/million pop.

Italy 0.22m 31,000 510 deaths/million pop.

Spain 0.27m 27,000 570 deaths/million pop.

France 0.18m 26,000 390 deaths/million pop.

Brazil 0.16m 11,000 50 deaths/million pop.

Africa 0.06m 2,000 9 deaths/million pop.

Belgium 0.05m 9,000 760 deaths/million pop.

Germany 0.17m 8,000 90 deaths/million pop.

Iran 0.11m 7,000 80 deaths/million pop.

Russia 0.22m 2,000* (FT suggests 3,400) 10 deaths/million pop.

China 0.08m 5,000  (Doubts galore) 3 deaths/million pop.

Sweden 0.03m 3,000 320 deaths/million pop.

India 0.07m 2,000 2 deaths/million pop.

Ireland 0.02m 1,000 300 deaths/million pop.

Australia 0.01m 100 4 deaths/million pop.

So there’s the up to date figures, which are rounded up or down, and are, to say the least, interesting…how accurate they really are, who knows?

So why don’t we compare them with some facts for Major Epidemics We Have Known On Earth.

Global Pandemics

COVID-19  286,000 dead in 5 months, no vaccine, no treatments yet. 4.3m confirmed infected worldwide (3-4% mortality) 32,000 dead in UK in 4 months cf. 19,000 flu deaths average p.a. (28,000 worst/1,600 least)

SEASONAL FLU AVERAGES  500,000 dead p.a. up to 1 billion infected p.a. (0.1% fatality)

Current figures: INFLUENZA  2019-2020 up to 25,000 dead since October 2019 (up to 50m infected with it)… annual vaccines/retrovirals hugely successful

INFLUENZA 2009 up to 600,000 dead 20% world infected (1.4 billion) (0.03% fatality)

HIV/AIDS   36m dead  (over 30m currently living with HIV) 1981-present…retrovirals successful

HONG KONG FLU  like Influenza (1968) 1m dead inc 0.5 m of Hong Kong (15%)………0.5% mortality rate

SPANISH FLU  influenza (1918-1920) up to 100m dead, up to 20% mortality rate…. 25m deaths in first 6 months (up to 40% world infected)

BLACK DEATH ….Bubonic Plague up to 200m dead

——————————————————

And on that cheerful note… next post = some arguments !

(Comments below as usual please)

www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history

fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/

Comment

BOSCH, ROCHE and UNITY?

May 05, 2020  /  Chris Marshall

It’s the 5th May. ALL the talk is about “Lifting Lockdown”. Will schools go back? Hairdressers? (Oooh I hope so). Transport ramping up again? How many tests are we doing? What’s the rest of the world doing? Have we found a cure/vaccine/treatment? ARE WE ALL UNITED? Why aren’t we fighting all this together, as a planet?

That’s a big one, and worth a thought or two. What’s first up?

Italy: Packed Again after Lockdown Lifted

Italy: Packed Again after Lockdown Lifted

WELL. LOCKDOWNS.

“Journalists” like Toby Young in today’s Sun “Newspaper” says END the lockdown, and stop children losing their childhood.

Spain and Italy (and France to a lesser extent) after having imposed much more severe (and much earlier imposed) lockdowns than the UK have started to allow some shops to open, and for people to go out for walks after being trapped indoors for 8 weeks. Their Death and Infection rates are finally reducing.

The Far East has already started to return to some kind of normal while testing and Contact Tracing have been operating at much greater levels than here. Many States in the USA are keen to go their own way and just open up, help save the economy and to hell with the consequences.

Who will have got this right will be reported by historians in the years to come. Seems to me that it’s softly softly with everything presently, and no rash decisions should be made if gains are to be respected. But people with loud voices will get their way in some places no doubt.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-france-spain-ease-lockdowns-after-low-coronavirus-deaths-cases-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

TESTING & TREATMENT

In the UK, almost bottom of the Leading Nation Ladder regarding testing, we apparently reached 122,000 per day (which suddenly included posted out tests, many of which people had to throw away as there were no instructions or return labels). This test, being versions of the swab virus test, is the only one that’s been available in the UK. The number dropped to 75,000 the following day. Many of the postal tests of course haven’t even arrived back at the labs to analyse. The UK is still way behind everyone else in this matter, although there’s a mass of research groups all hard at it in the Antibody Test evaluation, and Vaccine Research areas.

In the US, the FDA (which approves the use of new drugs and treatments) has given the thumbs up to the Roche Antibody Test. YOU READ IT HERE FIRST weeks ago!!! They will be producing over 100 million test kits to detect who has had the virus, developed antibodies, and presumably has immunity against further infection. This final issue is however still hugely uncertain, subject to further investigation. But the Roche test (which may arrive here in a couple of months) is said to be very close to be 100% accurate. the tests that have been and are being evaluated in labs in Oxford are said to have 75-85% accuracy (and could and should have been used as a guide and for general trend in the UK over the last few months; they were good enough for many countries, but clearly not us. Today’s death figure is 29,000 plus. Sad.

HOWEVER, in Utrecht, Holland, University and HBM (a BioMed company) researches have found and isolated a “fully human antibody” that prevents the virus infecting people. Sort of. Therefore, this may well be a very major advance, as announced by Doctor Bosch, and the basis for future treatment for infected and uninfected people. While tests on the more traditional types of vaccine have reached trials (up to 20 human trials happening currently), this discovery could be the big one.

While President Trump was trumpeting disinfectant as a solution, there has been more interest and even promise, in the use of anti-viral drug remdesivir in treatments, while an earlier er trumpeted drug hydroxychloroquine has been found to have no positive effects and even a few negative ones in tests in the States.

FINALLY China and Japan are sending out an anti-flu drug Favipiravir (FujiFilm brand name Avigan), to 43 countries for clinical trials with moderately infected patients, and Japan is almost certain to approve both Remdesivir and Favipiravir as treatments for Covid-19 in the next two weeks.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/03/fda-grants-emergency-authorization-to-roche-antibody-tests/#7e33e32f2526

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/remdesivir-the-antiviral-drug-is-being-touted-as-a-possible-coronavirus-treatment-but-will-it-work

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/fujifilms-flu-drug-favipiravir-sent-to-43-nations-for-covid-19-trials.html


THOUGHTS

I’m not like some who think that it’s all a conspiracy and that life should get back to normal, because we’re all being Manipulated By The System.

The not so unexpected HAS happened. A virus more potent than flu wasn’t caught and isolated quickly enough, as SARS and MERS were. Bill Gates amongst many others said in 2016 that we should all be prepared. It seems certain now that The USA and UK were not prepared sufficiently and that is resulting in the World’s Highest Infection rates and death tolls in these two countries. Leadership arrogance and incompetence are partly to blame IMO. Trump is obsessed by egotism and re-election, while Boris’ “Puppet Government” (see New York Times article link below) has clearly been obsessed with Brexit, and nothing else.

I think this is sickening. I’d still like some life and have plenty of living to do, and although there is a high trust level in the UK and US leaderships at present (there nearly always is during a crisis), I read with absolute alarm how people have been writing about our disastrous handling of all things Covid. Far Eastern newspapers in China, Hong Kong, Australia plus articles today in India and the aforementioned NYT American piece all seem to assess the UK’s response as lamentable, especially considering the events occurring in Italy and Spain, and the early response from Germany.

INCIDENTALLY, the more I read about the road taken by the US to reach its currently 200,000 tests/day (they are said to require 500,000 minimum and “35 million/day would put us in a much better situation”, then the more I feel that the US and the UK have been similarly arrogant and incompetent.

Our Government on a daily basis churns out the same story of stay in, stay safe, social distancing, hearts go out to the families, our wonderful NHS, Led By Science etc etc…

EVERYONE in the know from the WHO to almost ALL of Europe, all the advisors in the States and all the experts in the Far East said Test Test Test. When you look at testing regimes in the poorest parts of South Africa, it makes how rich UK and USA have failed seem a 21st Century disgrace.

The NHS was ill-equipped. The absence of any kind of believable strategy has resulted in huge hospitals being built and remain unoccupied while vast numbers of Care Home patients have remained untested and left to die alone and unvisited by their families. (Public Health England had to radically change approach after 3 weeks of Italy being overwhelmed, and only investigative journalism by Newspapers and Channel 4 and BBC programmes has forced the release of more and more documents revealing inadequacy and almost non responsiveness of Government to the 300 companies who offered to divert PPE and Ventilator sales and production from Overseas to the UK. Madness. Incompetence.

We applaud the NHS once a week while doctors nurses and cleaners are dying due to lack of equipment. Scandalous. We seem to have someone called Sir Patrick Vallance leading the Scientific Advisory Committee who just minutes ago after being asked by Jeremy Hunt (yes him) about the models used to form our response to the virus said ”I can’t remember when we changed our modelling approach”. That’s encouraging.

How quickly the testing regimes, equipment supply and lockdown lifting strategies improve the UK’s ability to cope with this emergency will determine what state the spirit, economy and life of the country will be in over the recovering months and years, while the People will know who was right or wrong.

UNITY? As an old hippy who can never understand why people prefer to do things apart rather than together, well, being away from friends and family is surely much worse than mucking in together.

Especially…when you’re making a hash of it.

Comments below if anyone so desires.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/boris-johnson-coronavirus-uk.html

2 Comments

"CALLING US HEROES MEANS THEY'RE PROUD OF US WHEN WE DIE..."

April 28, 2020  /  Chris Marshall

HEROES FOR MORE THAN ONE DAY

heroes.jpg

A lot of people are already suffering from Covid-19 fatigue, particularly on Social Media.

Slagging off the government doesn’t help many, and most of these won’t read the journals (why would you, unless you’re a geek?), the now anti-government right wing press (The Mail and The Telegraph have shocked me in their anti-Tory stance on the front pages in recent weeks), and the TV Reports (from Channel 4 and both BBC News and Sky to give them credit) where the true facts of how the UK has responded to the virus have been detailed with more and more alarm and frenzy.

The latest shocking revelations come from the BBC Panorama programmer from the 27th April 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hr3y/panorama-has-the-government-failed-the-nhs

Alarmingly, in this broadcast, NHS staff reveal that:

  • The Government SIX WEEKS AGO downgraded the nature of the disease so that legally they needed to supply a much lower requirement of PPE (safety protection equipment) to frontline workers.

  • Millions and millions of items have to be stockpiled before a pandemic as 100s of thousands of PPE equipment are required each DAY. As of this morning, a minimum of 116 NHS staff are dead due to absence of the appropriate equipment.

  • Much of the PPE being used was revealed to have several stickers covering up the Use By dates, replaced by later dates.

  • The sight of NHS staff using home-made equipment, donated building site masks, kitchen aprons and plastic school experiment goggles truly sickened this viewer.

  • The government response to up to 300 companies all of whom want to supply them with PPE but who have heard NOTHING back from them since January confirms the utter desperate nature of criminal management of our response to this virus. One company was in fact shown making high quality gowns, 90% of which are being sold to the US. Other companies continue to supply high end surgical masks to Germany, Italy and Spain.

None of the above is “Keyboard Warrior” stuff. I endeavour in this blog to supply references and the best possible opinions (it seems to me) as supplied by a variety of “experts” (some of whom, as I’ve quoted, disagree with each other), or give online Video references, where you, dear reader, may make up your own mind.

So there. Everyone handling the UK response must be given the chance to express their position, and if represented, state their case. So let that happen.

This is the slowly revealed state of how ill-equipped our beloved “Heroes” have been, down to a series of tragic decisions, largely down to incompetence and government underfunding. All the details contained in the Panorama piece are extremely worrying as we’re only just approaching (or just past possibly) the Phase One Peak of the effects of the virus.

This is ignoring the complete inadequacy of the Testing Programme (still no Antibody tests in the UK, and ramping up of Virus tests will miss the government’s stated aim by some way by the end of this week). There’s an INCREDIBLY DAMNING article in today’s Daily Mail saying that we may indeed be being ridiculous INCOMPETENT at even settling on an ANTIBODY test in Britain while the rest of the World has moved WAY ahead in using a variety of tests which are between 80% and 100% accurate enough for general assessment of the population (That’s a Chris Whitty quote, our chief Scientific advisor). So WHERE THE HECK ARE THEY??????

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8262463/Is-Britains-standard-antibody-tests-high.html

This is ignoring the totally disgraceful Care Home/Hospice death totals, which are currently adding 40% to the hospital figures announced daily. This may well prove to be a scandal that will shake up Health Care in the UK forever.

HEROES, VILLAINS and VICTIMS

Who’s responsible for the PPE situation? Why did the government find it necessary to downgrade their legal requirements for it?

Is it government scientific advisers who have been unclear and misleading regarding the UK’s strategy from the very start, one day “Herd Initiative”, next day Lockdown and Social Distancing?

The UK probably has including Care Home deaths about 40,000 victims, more than double what the chief adviser said might be a Best Case Scenario. So that’s passed. We have to rely on our experts and leaders to make the right call.

When this starts to get back to what will surely be a New Normal, we’ll all see whether that call was the best we could have done. Hindsight may well be extremely damning.


1 Comment

‘ANCOCK’S ‘ARF ‘ARF!

April 23, 2020  /  Chris Marshall

(Ask yer Grandparents about that hilarious play on words, if you didn’t get it)

Original Post: 16/4/2020

One Matt Hancock? There’s only one Matt Hancock. Government ministers on radio or TV apart from the Daily Service? There’s only one. Matt Hancock.

Well he’s taking a battering is our Minister for Health. Few weeks back, he said we were testing 12,500 people a day, we weren’t (it was 8,000). Then it was everyone has ample PPE (protective equipment). Nowhere near it. Then there’s the daily garbage verbosely avoided at the update things. Turns out we’re NOW very upset about the fact that there’s lots and lots of older people dying in Care Homes (but not included in the figures), and hardly any have been tested, so they die, i.e. don’t go into hospitals, don’t use the ventilators, hospital beds etc, so it’s hardly surprising that we have “plenty of capacity in the hospitals”.

Care Home staff haven’t got the equipment to protect themselves, so, like the Nurses, Doctors, Bus Drivers and all front line staff who ARE dying through lack of equipment, maybe bunches of these will die too. But AT LEAST, they’re getting given lapel badges saying CARE.

Unlike the Far East, and several European countries, thought are turning to the difficult decision to slowly end the Lockdown. Tricky as deaths are still so high in Europe, and the UK hasn’t seen the peak yet, it’s really going to be an incredibly dreadful call, if people get it wrong. In the UK, of course, we’re miles away from Hancock’s 100,000 test per day by the end of April (we’re doing about 13,000 ish). There’s no antibody tests yet (the Far East ones haven’t improved in effectivenessity, the Americans announced yesterday that General Motors has successfully come up with one, and they will start rolling these out, which has spurred the President on to start considering “Getting the US Back To Work”)….

Other UK Government ministers spew out almost identical rhetoric daily “We fully intend” “Every effort is being made” “We have to thank”…

Oh, and the PM went into Intensive Care, then was released, but it was touch and go.

This is a bugger of a Virus. The research scientists are daily arguing about whether there will be proper immunity to a vaccine, whenever it arrives, and the journalists are only asking one question this week…when are we out of lockdown here?

The charming story of a WW1 & 2 Veteran Captain Thomas Moore walking up and down his garden with Zimmer Frame to raise money for the NHS (£13 million at the mo!) has least “gripped the nation”. Well, the TV News channels have something different to film.

Still, locked away, I made my first ever Banana Loaf, and very good it still is….

More soon….Comments welcome.

2 Comments

UP, UP AND A BAT

April 23, 2020  /  Chris Marshall

Original Post: 10/4/2020

Government Strategy, any chance of one please? Well for a couple of days now, the Government has declared that I am “Extremely Vulnerable” to getting this virus thing, so my further total lockdown is to last 12 more weeks at least, with NO walks, going to shops, NOTHING. So I have LOADS of time to write music, drink, eat (fortunately not THAT hungry at the mo, but I’m hoping I get on a Supermarket list for the Not That Able….I need huge stocks of beers and tonic…).

Meantime, the daily Government briefings are getting blander and blander, this week distracted by our esteemed PM being in MY HOSPITAL (St Thomas’) but fortunately getting better. So I decided, along with daily chats with buddies who also are extremely concerned about the UK’s strategy, and let’s face it, today we’ve had the highest daily death toll yet, in Europe, and the whole Testing, PPE, Ventilators and CONTACT TRACING thing is in turmoil.

The issues may I believe be summarised as follows:

1) EVERYTHING is 2 months late…nobody in the UK even considered preparing for a major epidemic in the U at the start…we now (10 April) have the highest daily fatality figure in Europe..we will end up being the most devastated country in Europe it is suggested…

2) There has hardly been any real sensible numbers of testing….of ANY sort. Ramping up? Not VERY much because we don’t have the kits or infrastructure (kits/locations/labs/strategy) to do this properly…the so called “experts” on the daily government briefings aren’t in fact scientific “experts”, they’re more management psychologists….the Scientific geniuses on the advisory panel to Public Health England are kept totally quiet…

3) We didn’t learn anything from the Far East…the majority of UK Medical Experts are disgusted by the fact that NO Taskforce has been put together to do Testing followed by Contact Tracing…That is the ONLY strategy that will work…almost every successful country has done this…we didn’t lock down and “cordon sanitaire” as recommended by WHO…hence there have been more and more local spreads….because of hugely “decimating” all local NHS facilities and medical labs, we’ve ended up being slow, and more and more frontline workers are dying as a result……unforgivable I say.

4) Testing kits and PPE are hardly made in decent numbers in this country. We should have copied Germany 2 months ago and acquired huge supplies. IT’S A PANDEMIC for Heaven’s Sake….

5) We are BOTTOM of the technological use in the Hi-Tech World regarding Contract Tracing and apps, months behind the Far East….

6) Virologists state that the CONTACT TRACING is going to be the MOST IMPORTANT thing here, as it is in the Far East…..Public Health England aren’t even releasing the important data for the spread of the disease and locations etc…it’s regarded as being “too sensitive”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=05-jbrHRmrs&feature=emb_logo

Finally, THE COVID REPORT (link above) is a new YouTube channel series featuring discussion involving British experts and commentators, which I personally believe is what should happen at EVERY daily Government Press Conference….no pussyfooting, shillshallying or willywaving….Tell Us The Truth.

NO letting up of lockdowns yet please, don’t even go on about it silly journalists…deaths are about to hit Thousands/Day so for goodness sake, just let’s get our act together NOW. It’s arguably already too late, and I’m gonna have to sit this one out for another 12 weeks at least…

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRR….more soon…comments below!

Comment

APRIL 5TH, 2020 THE THREE S’ES: SCIENCE, PSYCHOLOGY, STUPIDITY, SENSE AND SELFISHNESS

April 23, 2020  /  Chris Marshall

(see what I did there?)

The Science behind this AND more. Sooner or later, probably midway actually, there should be a vaccine element in our annual flu jabs, and that may well sort things out regarding COVID-19 at least for the next few years, until the next mega pandemic virus arrives. For those who are sincerely interested, heavy duty wise, below is some historical stuff about the science involved in all of this, and where we are now, in April 2020.

ALL OF THESE FACTS in this blog are supported by discussion with my former biochemical research buddy, plus about eight very interesting online scientific journal articles, and all may be checked by clicking on the links I’ll supply at the foot of today’s wise words (if you’re keen).

Viruses are tiny things which can be completely harmless and undetected, OR rarely can cause HUGE amounts of damage, like COVID-19. To fight them effectively, you’ve got to generally find a vaccine. Understanding the process of doing this requires what follows.

1) ISOLATE SPECIMENS OF THE VIRUS

(which scientists in half a dozen countries started to do in late December 2019). This coronavirus is actually named SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). Now coronaviruses generally are like flu viruses in that they are very common, generally don’t kill (well in the UK in recent years, number of deaths have been recorded as between 8,000 and 28,000 during varying degrees of winter, and flujabs usually vaccinate quite successfully). HOWEVER COVID-19 was transmitted from ANIMALS, (as were SARS and MERS, previous nasty viruses, which were HIGHLY fatal to humans), and with this virus, it’s accepted now that the first person infected was in a food market in Wuhan, China where several kinds of live and dead animals, including bats, chickens etc were kept in close proximity. Whether this happened MANY months earlier, and the Chinese kept the figures quiet, or actually in November/December, is up for speculation. Whatever, the genetic “sequence” of the virus or “genome” was discovered and defined by the Chinese by the middle of January 2020, and the sequence shared with World scientists. While the Chinese went into astonishingly high lockdown, gathering together up to 40,000 of its own scientists to surround and rapidly test thousands of patients with symptoms, (then sending HUGE numbers to Quarantine Camps within the Hubei Province, and instantly Locking Down the rest)…..the 6 or so groups of virologist scientists around the world worked hard to get an initial basis for a vaccine, which was more or less found by the third week of January 2020!
The first human trials are CONFIRMED to commence from the last week of April 2020.
This is flipping unprecedented, and though ridiculously rapid, it does then take MONTHS of trials on humans to modify the vaccine produced to make it more than 80% successful, which is generally regarded as the minimum figure before calling a vaccine “effective”. It’s also incredibly expensive and vaccine developers need high teams of fundraisers to even get to the stage where small scale vaccines can be produced after very expensive tests and manufacturing. Let’s then hope that there aren’t too many “Anti-Vaxxers” who are against ANY form of vaccination, as they can always cause symptoms similar to those with the virus (from injecting into your body bits of the virus genes).

PHEW, got that? So that’s what these groups of scientists are doing NOW. Development in Canada of the vaccine is particularly well detailed and analysed (see link below) if you like to read that kind of thing! Epidemiologists (yup, that’s what they’re called), were and are CERTAINLY not all in agreement about what to do about this virus.

2) ONCE IT’S INFECTED PEOPLE & DEALING WITH COVID-19 KINDA INVOLVES THESE THINGS:

A) CONFIRMATION of when people have it (using TEST A as mentioned before on this blog site, otherwise know as the Antigen Test, which Germany are carrying out in half a million per week, and we’re going currently about 70,000 a week). Then if they’ve been tested and not simply left to do 7 - 14 days self-isolation, which lets antibodies build up resistance to it, then the symptoms go away. If the symptoms don’t go away, as with most people who end up having huge breathing difficulties, end up hospitalised, and given oxygen to help breathing, then if other underlying or otherwise conditions arise, the patient can sadly die, and is usually highly infectious so needs isolation. Those who don’t die either get released back into the world at large, or their symptoms just go away (like a standard flu, as this may eventually be classed alongside), and they are infectious no more.

The idea of CONTAINING it was in fact the first idea. The Chinese ended up CORDONING OFF about 100 MILLION folks around Wuhan, but EVEN SO, the virus has now been found in nearly every country in the world. But the Chinese method of TESTING, ISOLATION and QUARANTINE of people AND THEIR CONTACTS (often with the aid of relatively simple Phone Apps which locate and send texts to people to self-isolate) seems to have been largely successful in controlling the spread of the virus.

At least Antarctica seems clear! Some epidemiologists think up to 70% of the World Population will eventually be infected by this SARS-CoV-2 virus, and thus will get COVID-19. Of these billions of people, at least 15 percent will have NO symptoms at all, same as most cases of influenza. The majority will have minor symptoms, bit of fever, bit of a cough, etc etc, but some, and this figure is slowly and surely being agreed upon, SOME will die, as discussed above. The MORTALITY rate for seasonal FLU in the world is about 0.1% according to the WHO. According to the incredibly disagreeing epidemiologists from all different schools of though around the world, the current figure, based on highly incomplete data, is that 3% approx of people with the virus will die. This of course doesn’t include the zillions of people who haven’t been tested and so consequently don’t know if they’ve got the virus or had it, or not. So the 3% is likely to fall dramatically, maybe even to the same as standard influenzas. Whatever, it’s MOSTLY elderly adults who catch it, then people with “underlying” conditions which affect the ability of the body to cope and build up resistance, such as people with cancers, heart problems, lung diseases and others…

SO…if you can actually CONTAIN IT, what next? WELL, the NEXT PART is where it is now regarded that the UK has totally blown it. Public Health England at first decided that using mathematical models, forget what the Chinese had done, and that they should MANAGE THE EPIDEMIC, let loads get it, then get to a relatively low maximum deaths but ensure that HERD IMMUNITY had been built up, and then the overall number of deaths would then drop, while more and more people became immune. problem was that the people advising the government GOT IT WRONG because over 20% of people infected in the UK by the end of January got very ill, weren’t building up immunity, and people started to die, indicating that as hardly any testing had been done (still in the 100s a day in February!), there were probably hundreds of thousands already with the virus, and no isolation measures had even been considered. Same certainly goes for Italy and Spain, who have the second highest infection figures in the world.

B) TESTING - TEST A One guy that seems to write a whole load of sense is a UK Paediatrician called Anthony Costello who was a director at the WHO, who said “We’ve got this totally wrong: the government weren’t being advised by people involved in public health, and the globally respected and accepted form of virus management was and should be TESTING, ISOLATION, QUARANTINE.” They’re doing this now almost everywhere in the world. It took us until MARCH 23rd 2020 before the UK changed its tack. Testing however is a massive problem in the UK. It isn’t in South Korea. Why?

IN SOUTH KOREA, these Tests A (antigen or PCR “polymerise chain reaction” tests) are everywhere. They do 20,000 a day in 633 sites. They are FREE, many are drive-through, they swab your mouth/nose and get taken to one of a large number of labs, where a six hour incredibly complicated series of steps is involved in the analysis. Essentially the Chinese isolated the virus “RNA” (the viral blueprint), and this PCR test ends up with a version of RNA (converted to a more measurable DNA) which if compared with the with the Chinese original version shows YOU’VE GOT VIRUS in your body. Still there. NOW. Because there’s tons of steps to do this, 6 hours is till incredible, but up to 30% of these tests can be simply wrong. However if you give it to someone with symptoms, there’s at least a very strong case that they have it. If they’re negative, it is NOT an all clear for the patient/testee. Got it? You get the result back BY TEXT within 24 hours. As simple as that.

Because of this test, you get a very good idea where the virus has spread to in the population so that they, and everyone they’ve been in contact with (up to a point, with the ubiquitous aid of phone Apps) may be quarantined (7 - 14 days). A hell of a lot more people know if THEY HAVE IT, and the South Koreans also know WHERE THEY ARE.

What then? As we know if symptoms don’t diminish within 7 - 14 days, people may need to go to hospital, and as discussed they may pass away, if the oxygen and use of ventilators and constant care doesn’t assist sadly. (N.B. Yes, in the UK, we are lacking these ventilators in the thousands, maybe more, with no immediate chance of enough, plus have turned down the EU offers to join in mass purchases from the Far East. China this morning sent New York 1000 ventilators, as Central Government said they didn’t need them, so the Mayor put out an appeal.)

In summary, this is what is happening in ever increasing amounts in the UK and USA where we started incredibly late to test. Bad bad news. Unforgivable, I’d say. Because in SOUTH KOREA, there have been 174 COVID-19 deaths out of only 10,000 positive cases compared with as of today nearly 5000 deaths out of nearly 50,000 positive cases. In the USA, they started to isolate and test very very late, and the figures there are soaring.

SO, can we get to 100,000 tests/day in the UK? Can we get the test kits (which include swabs and active reagents)? The US companies making them have been banned from exporting them…only TWO countries even manufacture the swabs, and they are in Italy and the USA. The UK has not even set up a minimal capacity laboratory regime to analyse the samples. That is finally starting after an appeal to Universities and Private Labs, two months too late, experts say. Plus, there’s a bidding war going on worldwide for these test kits and experts think it’s going to seriously affect the mortality outcome.

Anyway. That’s Test A.

TESTING - TEST B This would be the “Antibody Test”. This is also called Serologic Testing. The UK has just ordered 3.5 million of these “pinprick” tests. They are quoted today as saying a further purchase for 40 million has been guaranteed. These are all variations on the same test. Basically, a week or two after someone HAS BEEN INFECTED there are antibodies in measurable amounts in the bloodstream. This test is a standard immune system test that tests for immunoglobulin antibodies produced by the body after infection from the virus. There have been kits in the Far East since February, and these are appearing exported all over the world. Unfortunately, they mostly don’t work. Spain and the Czech Republic both sent back hundreds of thousands three weeks ago because they only had a 30% success rate. Those bought by the UK appear to be a newer test which should also “confirm” that the person with antibodies is now immune to the virus, though that sounds pretty dubious bearing in mind nobody knows this yet, and won’t for a considerable time. The UK also states it’s buying 15 minute home antibody kits, and New York says that they’re developing an “antibody serological drug” to test for antibodies, whatever that may be. Most promising seems to be the Rapid In-Clinic Vivalytic Test from Bosch, which tests for a total of 10 different viruses including SARS-CoV-2 (which leads to COVID-19). This produces results in under 3 hours and is done in a clinic. Also there’s a company called Sona Nanotech that is making a rapid test available later in April which can use blood, urine or saliva, and test people anywhere, including getting onto planes. These only take 5 to 15 minutes to get results…..

SO. Where ARE we now? Some countries claim they have reached a peak and have control of the spread of the virus, loosening the lockdown conditions in their cities. Other countries are still seeing the mortality and infection rate rise and have possibly months to go before any end may be in sight. Strategies have come and gone. 2020 will be known as the Year of Covid-19 whatever happens next. Companies investing the millions plus to produce a vaccine will need to be sure of its efficacy. All countries will need to be sure they can test effectively (which the UK can’t say as yet), and will need sufficient ventilator equipment to treat the ever increasing numbers in Covid-19 Wards in hospitals.

Hopefully, this analysis has informed and educated. It sure did me as I was reading and discussing bunches of this stuff.

Comments below please……

REFERENCES

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-very-2020-epidemic/605941/

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.virusres.2018.02.013

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/coronavirus-research-lab-vido-intervac-1.5443244

https://theconversation.com/i-study-viruses-how-our-team-isolated-the-new-coronavirus-to-fight-the-global-pandemic-133675

https://www.theguardian.com/world/coronavirus-outbreak

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibody-test-g7-leaders-accuracy-covid-19-immunity-passports-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-antibody-test-what-is-it-virus-blood-nhs-matt-hancock-covid-19-a9423571.html

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SPIN SPIN SPIN TEST TEST TEST

April 23, 2020  /  Chris Marshall

Original Post: 3/4/2020

The World Of Politics. Bleaggggh you may say. But having been a member of the Labour Party all of my life (apart from quitting it twice), I guess I live, breathe, get angry, get delighted, get analytical, pay my taxes, get angry, get even more angry.

I am furious.

As someone in the later period of his life, I’m rather concerned about, well, LIVING. Politicians have a job to do. OK in my opinion, the whole Brexit thing was spun to the British People in the form of dominic Cummings’ lies, good old lies. Remember Nixon, remember Clinton? Remember Weapons of mass destruction? Yup, it’s all parties worldwide. Sure, there’s governments that just become Police States and beat the crap out of you before they can even START lying.

Then there’s hurtful life destroying holding-on-to-their-jobs type lying. Johnson, Gove, Hancock all practice this. Trump is way less complex, he’s an egocentric Dangermouth. But as we’re now potentially going through the biggest disaster worldwide caused by whatever (to be determined) that’s killing more and more, and won’t stop killing for a long while, and that’s going to alter the way the Earth functions in some way, THEN we need to question, question, analyse, question and then demand answers very loudly.

The World Health Organisation left a message over a month ago. Test, test, test. Many people agreed with that. But the UK was not prepared, and we are now in a desperate position. The death rate in this country is rising predictably hugely, and each time this government is asked what the heck it’s up to, the answers are lies, excuses, lies, pathetic ejaculations of intent, then more lies.

The latest is that now “we intend to “ramp up” (that phrase again) testing to 100,000 a day by May 1st 2020.” We currently do under 10,000 “antigen” tests per day (let’s call it Test A) which is a swab test that can say if the person tested actually HAS the virus. After Health Secretary Hancock spouted yesterday, there is still NO certainty that this will rise by anything significant AT ALL by May 1st. He plans to add Private Organisations and Universities to the testing regime IF THEY CAN GET THE TESTING KITS or DEVISE ANOTHER ONE. “We’re going to be working with other companies to try to ramp up the number of testing kits…” Germany is doing 500,000 of these Test A tests WEEKLY. We never bought aenough of them, can’t get hold of many of them, haven’t got them, so won’t know with any speed whatsoever where people have got the virus or not, so we’re vastly short on frontline emergency staff, who are staying away from work until they know they’ve had the virus and recovered (not died, as is happening). Hancock is lying, has lied, and whether it’s incompetence after very bad delaying decisions or simply it’s a disgusting smugness generated by the climate of spin and lies so enjoyed by Cummings, well, I’d say the government has blood on its hands.

AND…before anyone says Oh There’s Another Keyboard Warrior or something like that, do your research, come up with a reasoned different opinion and I’d be very happy to debate it.

Hancock also says that the 100,000 daily tests he’s hoping to do in a month’s time also includes a vast number of “antibody” tests (Test B) which can detect whether someone has already HAD the virus, has recovered, and is probably immune when tested. They could then go back to work, and not infect anyone, or be infected again. Probably. THING IS….small problem, Test B DOES NOT EXIST yet. No Test B actually works. Yet. Spin spin spin spin spin spin spin LIES.

So where does that leave us? In desperate need of testing. In desperate need for full protective clothing for frontline workers. Unfortunately, it appears (TBC) that the EU scheme that would have allowed us to take part in purchasing huge numbers of masks and ventilators at near to cost price was shunned. Civil Servants went to 8 meetings apparently to discuss these matters, then said No Thanks. Getting Tory donors Dyson at the eleventh hour to dream up a ventilator sounds like last minute desperation to me, and what Formula One racing car manufacturers are doing, Heaven knows.

Is there any good news? The country is having a bash at the lockdown & social distancing thing, and making a reasonable fist of it (apart from a few arrogant scum who simply don’t give a damn). This situation could go on for ages…still bunches of people are going to work on the tube, so that isn’t helping…the Brazilian President doesn’t think it’s a problem nor do bunches of senators in certain US States. Marvellous. One of my so called friends says ”it’s just a load of fuss over nothing…listen to the Spiked Podcast, more people die of flu, blah blah…” Right. Glad you’ve understood this all much better than me.

I’m in an Underlying Condition category here, having had a lung thingie since I was 29. Means I get three or four chest infections a year. So I’m a bit worried, rather fancy a few more years on this planet. Things to do, People to see etc…..

My dear pal and correspondent Peter Newman-Legros wrote in response to the April 1st blog piece (below):

Spot on with your a-musings and seriousnesses also. I’m hoping that one outcome will be that the world collectively will be given a hefty knock away from its hitherto direction; that unfettered capitalism and the endless quest for profit are not seen as the remedies for healing the damage done to people and economies. Perhaps a critical mass will finally make the difference and following a humanist path will become the new world « socialism ». We can but hope. Smaller, simpler, kinder.  And if the popularist despots and commentators can be seen for what they are and given the boot, that would be a good result. We know who they are.

Wouldn’t that be nice.

I can tell that people like my pal namesake Chris “Wood” Marshall, a very Pro Establishment figure, will probably disagree and say that they’re probably doing the best they can (which I suppose might be the point here). We never share similar views really, but that’s fine. In this case, I think by finding out rapidly why we’re so drowning with the testing scenario, we could force the government to change course, appeal (to Europe?) for huge numbers of Test A if there’s any spare, and the government could admit that this “absence of reagent” is because they waited so long before acting, they could save a bunch of lives, and help to get out of this heap….would so love to be proved TOTALLY WRONG.

Any comments gratefully received….

xx

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LOCKDOWN IN LONDON

April 23, 2020  /  Chris Marshall

Original Post: 1/4/2020

Good Grief. Hello World. Well this is an excuse for me to keep some sort of diary containing events and my thoughts about such events so that when all this Virus thing is over, and here’s hoping I’ll still be alive and breathing at such point, then we can look back and make observations, cast nasturtiums, and be alarmingly smug, disgusted, over emotional and even somewhat shocked by what’s happened. So here’s this here, as opposed to upsetting too many people on other Social Media. Enough are spouting there…

It’s 31st March 2020, and it’s been a sort of Lockdown in London for a couple of weeks now. This means popping out for a walk and a shop a couple of times a week, in my case. My half-the-time Nurse buddy is here for a few days then back to Yorkshire where he also nurses (in two places), so is getting quite pooped. I’m trying to write more enormous life-changing International hit songs (very very slowly) with wrist injuries, and old lung injury and a slowly recovering left eye after a botched then recovered cataract surgery….

But, London. UK. We’ve had a few months since we heard about the virus which originated probably in dodgy bat food markets, no I mean, Food Markets (where bats are still to this day sold) in Wuhan in China at the end of last year. Hospitals were rapidly built there, thousands have died (though the current conspiracy theories suggest that FORTY times the number of infected and died is the true figure), so the UK conspiracy theories currently abound, regarding: 1) nowhere near enough protective clothing for frontline staff, 2) a suspiciously low number of ventilators, testing kits and testing full stop is out there, 3) the daily briefings contain a vast number of lies by Government officials (including Johnson, Hancock and Gove) so that’s hardly surprising, especially as they’re all guided by Chief Liar Dominic Cummings, who may well be running the whole shebang.

Italy and Spain have alarming numbers of infected and dead (the latter currently rising by nearly 1000 a day), though the UK’s figures are hardly reliable as the government keeps changing the criteria for counting them.

Countries like Brazil have a leader who says Don’t Take Any Notice of Guidelines (“let’s face this virus like a man”), Florida has absolutely jam packed beaches as the Governor of Florida thinks it’s a good idea to keep Normal Activities Happening (“We have to look after the next generations”). Trump himself has changed his Point of View sometimes thrice daily, but then his lies make Cummings seem angelic. Can he possibly survive all this?

So what’s our strategy? Do we have one? The scientific boffins in the UK honestly don’t seem very clear on any sensible strategy other than at the moment “Wash Your Hands, Social Distance, and Stay At Home” to save the NHS. Idiots are still partying and the Police now have Sweeping Powers. They do.

So we’ve ended up in March 2020 Locked Down, about to enter a massive world recession after an equally massive pandemic, and I’m not convinced Life will ever return to Normal. What’s also happening is that polluting Nitrous Oxide levels are diminishing impressively, the canal water in Venice is crystal clear, and with the hugely reduced road and air traffic, evidence of hugely decreasing pollution from aerial shots is most promising.

AND YET…..we’ve not heard much from Russia or Africa at all, India with its huge population is now declaring, and this could go huge there, the USA is currently the greatest affected (if the figures are to be believed), and countries in the Far East claim they’ve beaten it. Planes are arriving at Heathrow daily and passengers not checked AT ALL upon arrival, whereas all airports Eastern have vast numbers of testing staff as soon as people arrive.

So what does any of this mean? Are we starting to examine our lives during the long lockdown periods, especially attitudes to work, friendships, environment, other people (less fortunate etc)? Do any of us think there should be MASSIVE change so as to save the World, animals, plants, oceans, kinda restore the balance the planet used to have whenever that was?

Will any of us change our politics? It’s not unknown that I’ve always been a bit of a leftie, and don’t think very much of this government, or other extreme Tory ones. Equality and Chance in life (not to mention Freedom) no matter ones origin must be the most important things in life to my mind. Anyone who is dishonest, who constantly lies (at least Thatcher didn’t exactly do that, Belgrano aside) has no place in my life or in Power in my opinion.

(Here we go…) So people who parade in front of us since Brexit (I so wish we were still in the EU, leading it even) to constantly be uncaring and lie through their teeth for their own ends, people who take advantage of other people and exploit financial loopholes to get richer and richer and richer whilst so many people suffer, and it doesn’t matter HOW great an entrepreneur you are, as long as you use your money without greed and share it when you have an insanely excessive amount, and finally people who are outright crooks, and whose prime characteristic is evil…well all these folks should be taught a lesson by whatever’s happening now, and help to make a Better World.

Yeah Yeah Yeah, what Hippie Rot. You’re all right Jack, you own a house, have food, drink and friends, and work minimally and at your own pace. I hear this. True (though I certainly worked for most of it, and was blessed with some talent).

SO, IT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN THEN. NO CHANGE THERE. BACK TO USUAL. Get full blown Capitalism back on its feet, the Billionaires won’t have suffered too much, the huge huge companies will start employing again, and we’ll enter a lifetime of austerity. I’m certainly not an economist, so I don’t really have a clue what’s going to happen.

Well, I’m gonna keep this lowkey diary blog thing for myself, and if anyone (who disagrees, agrees or who wants to share their thoughts) wants to comment, comment! Below, already….

Star Date, Lockdown 2 week, 16 bottles of gin left, 2 degrees outside.

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