OPTIMISMO-BLOG 2021!
WELCOME TO COVID NEWS 2021
2021 IS HERE, OPTIMISM ON THE WAY, RIGHT?
Who would have thought it? In the UK, 10 months after the Government had decided that this was a minor irritation to the Nation, indeed The World’s health, there are 1,815,342 people deceased due to Covid-19, with individual country deaths including USA 351,000 (inc highest number yesterday 3,880) , Brazil 194,000, India 149,000 and in Europe Italy, UK and France all around 70,000, and with Russia admitting now (see references at foot of this blog) three times the fatalities due to “recounting of figures” so therefore having above 160,000 and China also not quite ready to give figures but probably having at least 10 times as many deaths as admitted (again see reference) so that makes 40,000 plus.
Whatever strategy individual nations/states have adopted, with hugely different results depending on methods, behaviours, treatments and any other factors, it has to be admitted that the virus has taken the World by storm, changed everyone’s lives already and for the foreseeable future, and with currently numbers of infections rising rapidly in many places including USA, South America and Europe due to a Second wave, and mutation into other strains or “variants”, the need for vaccines has never been more apparent, or more desperate.
Fortunately, they are already here. Already, since the last blog here 3 weeks ago!
So here, at just about the beginning of a new year, let’s BE OPTIMISTIC and not challenge the authorities. Too much.
SO:
1) VACCINES
a) The first vaccine to receive MAJOR widespread acceptance in the UK closely followed by Europe and the USA, was as predicted here 6 months ago (!), the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine manufactured in Belgium. The first of the 40 million doses acquired by the UK were rolled out 8th December 2020, and the patient received her second dose 21 days later on 29th December 2020. Pfizer themselves recommends two doses 21 days apart for up to 95% “efficacy” and long term protection, and despite some rather contradictory words yesterday from Britain’s Medicine & Healthcare Regulatory Agency (MHRA) (who have to examine all the manufacturer’s test and trial data before giving the safety go-ahead for any vaccine) to suggest that this vaccine can be taken in two doses up to three months, here at Blog Towers, we reckon that they’ll take heed of the manufacturer’s words and do what they’re told. The vaccine itself is a bit troublesome because it has to be stored at -70 degrees Celsius in boxes packed with dry ice, and once the cases are opened, they have to be used within 7 days maximum from the appropriate fridge at the Hospital or GP survey. Sharpish. 700,000 people have been vaccinated as of 29th December apparently. Up to 95% efficacy eh? We’ll be the judges of that (unfortunately).
Vaccines which have passed Stage Three Trials
The second vaccine approved in the UK by the MHRA regulator is the Oxford University/Jenner Institute/AstraZeneca Viral Vector vaccine, which has had a few rather confusing press conferences by the vaccine’s leading Professor along with the boss of the MHRA. They’ve been slightly RUBBISHY factually and opinionly (?) which seems to have caused confusion in many places. Anyway, advantages of the Oxford vaccine include being able to store it in a normal fridge, and for longer than the Pfizer, and average figures assess the vaccine to be 70% effective, a bit more than the average flu vaccine.
The upshot is that the government has bought 100 million doses which may be given in 2 doses 3 months apart, hence being able to give more people the first dose (producing 50% efficacy after 21 days), and allowing manufacturing to ramp up….. we shall see. Having heard stories from actual people of not being offered anything from Pfizer yet despite one person being extremely vulnerable and 89, and others in their 70s and 80s, let’s hope that from January 4th 2021 the Oxford vaccine gets out to plenty of people quickly. The US have had huge delays in getting the Pfizer vaccine out quickly too, and the World is a jolly big place to cover in a rapidly more infectious virus scenario, which we now have. Mmmmm.
But we’re being OPTIMISTIC, RIGHT?
The THIRD vaccine authorised so far, the second by the FDA in the States, is the mRNA MODERNA vaccine. Manufacture in the US is being sped up, speeded, er, ramped, accelerated as we speak, and the vaccine regulators in Europe and the UK are assessing the data for this vaccine currently. The UK will have 5 million doses by April 2021 apparently, so it seems that Pfizer and Oxford are the frontrunners in early vaccination (95% efficacy after two doses).
OTHER VACCINES ON THE WAY (see tables) include one of the SinoPharm vaccines from China, which have been used for 4 months in China on military personal (Thanks Colonel), the Sputnik V vaccine from Russia (which Mr Putin has already fed to his daughter, and under smaller scale trials is said to be 92% efficient), and there is data due soon from Novavax and Janssen from large scale trials in Europe.
So. We can be optimistic, aha?
2) VARIANTS/STRATEGIES
There’s been all sorts of talk as the second wave continues apace, with increased infections and new strains of virus being more infectious . The variant known as VUI-202012/01 is said to be the most dominant and most transmissible strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK now (over 70% of the virus, which is now being grown in three different labs in the UK to test its defence against vaccines etc). There’s over 15 strain categories of this virus worldwide, and the UK discovered one has now arrived in over a dozen countries. The original strain the L strain (any jazz fans for Take The A Strain?) from China has mutated into strains called S, V, G, GV and O which have spread worldwide. Currently still, worldwide, the strain D614G is the most common…but there’s also a South African strain codenamed 501.V2, which appears to be very contagious too.
THE STRATEGY it seems though by most governments is to CARRY ON with their current strategies, including lockdown/open up a bit/lockdown a bit (UK) don’t bother/do a bit/protest/heavy lockdowns (different States in the US), then there’s WAIT FOR THE VACCINE (Everyone), plus there’s WE’VE MOSTLY BEATEN THIS (Far East/Australia/NZ), and then a mixture of all of these depending on severity of infection. Sweden has had to admit its more Laissez-Faire attitude has been much less successful than otherwise thought.
As somebody who is oldish, CEV (clinically extremely vulnerable), and pretty fed up, I’ve hardly seen anybody this year, hardly left home and just sat in waiting to be told what to do. So, vaccine, yes please Nurse.
There’s a lot of older people who feel this way and they all have my sympathy. The three main issues until vaccines become commonplace are 1) Schools, where do the kids go if the schools are shut and what about their education 2) Healthcare system overload (In the UK, all the new temporary hospitals rapidly built have remained unoccupied due to unavailability of staff, whereas in the Far East, all the beds and isolation/treatment occurred immediately in their Built In 10 Days hospitals) 3) Testing you STILL have to pay for tests in the UK unless you are symptomatic, or are offered the antigen rapid “lateral flow” tests which are less accurate but give a guide, or if you’re a frontline worker…school kids are about to be offered these mass testing tests from January 11th, 2021 in the UK. Whether in the UK THE GOVERNMENT DIDN’T FOLLOW THE SCIENCE (ie delayed two lockdowns at crucial times by weeks leading to huge surges in infections), and this led to where we are now, well Who Knows. We are where we are.
But it’s clear COVID fatigue has set in for good. People everywhere must be simply ignoring instructions. Today (31st December), the UK reached yet again its highest number of infections per day. Cowardly vulnerables like me find it very hard to leave the house, though I actually managed two takeaway pints with my dog walking friends yesterday as an end of year treat! BUT. Most people are RELYING on the vaccine to start the long trail back to some kind of normality. Let’s wish us all luck, eh?
Let’s be flipping well optimistic eh?
3) FINALLY
I’m going to add the Data Table below as usual for every coronablog this year, and thanks to everyone who’s read it or commented. This Blog is meant to be factual with some web references (with mostly press-references this time).
See you all later in 2021, and when in doubt have a look at the words or videos by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillip_Lee_(politician) (Dr Phillip Lee) and Professor Anthony Costello https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Costello who both seem to always make sense in whatever they say.
Please comment below or direct to me.
HAPPY NEW YEAR ONE AND ALL, and for flipping sake, use your wits and stay safe.
© rpl/CHRIS MARSHALL 2020/2021
——————————————————————————————————————————————————
In the data below, the corrected figure for Russia is now officially 186,000 as of December 29th 2020.
Data as suppled by John Hopkins/Worldometers Dec 30th 2020
https://apple.news/AC9s5llkaRRazvkP7JZjQdg (Bloomberg/Wuhan admits)
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12/30/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51665497
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-should-we-be-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-mutation-12161566
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/31/uk-nod-for-astrazeneca-vaccine-raises-more-questions.html